- National and popular consensus rejecting American plans aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause.
- 3 out of 4 “Israelis” believe it will fail and its chances of success are very low.
- Few global opinion polls measure public mood trends regarding it.
- 3% of a sample of 1,100 people confirmed that Palestinian division encourages the U.S. administration to pass it.
Although talk about the “Deal of the Century” occupies the media and the people concerned with or sponsoring the deal, little of this growing discourse has attempted to understand people’s opinions and general mood regarding the ideas and topics related to this deal. By searching the opinion poll database for the term “Deal of the Century,” I found no polls as of the date of writing this article. There were simple results under the title “Trump Plan,” “Kushner Plan,” or what is called the “Middle East Initiative,” among other similar names, but they did not rise to the level of drawing the attention of Americans and pollsters.
Despite the few global opinion polls measuring public mood trends regarding the “Deal of the Century,” those published in Palestine and the “Israeli” entity revealed that polls conducted in 2018 and 2019 showed nearly three-quarters of Palestinians (73.4%) rejected the deal, which is simply based on exchanging land for money. This percentage is increasing, especially in light of successive events related to the region, such as Trump’s declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, considering the Golan Heights as Israeli territories, and the recent convening of the Bahrain Workshop on June 25 and 26, 2019.
The Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas’s refusal to participate in the conference, despite American pressure and some Gulf states, is a reason for increased rejection among Palestinians. This was evidenced by a poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in April 2019, which showed that this deal does not align with Palestinian popular mood, where the vast majority oppose completing the “Deal of the Century.” Of course, this is not the same entity that conducted the 2018 poll.
Regarding Palestinians’ stance on some solution details, the majority (78.4%) rejected any peace agreement involving land exchange between “Israel” and the State of Palestine. Similarly, the majority (83.9%) rejected any future peace agreement involving continued Israeli security control over parts of the Palestinian state. Regarding the future of Palestinian refugees, 63.4% of respondents rejected any future peace agreement involving the integration of Palestinian refugees into neighboring Arab countries, while 32.3% found it acceptable.
In another recent poll conducted by the Public Opinion Research Center at Al-Aqsa University in Gaza’s governorates from June 18–23, 2019, it was found that there is a national and popular consensus rejecting American plans aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause, starting with the “Deal of the Century” and ending with the Bahrain Conference. Additionally, 99.1% of the sample supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s opposition to the deal. The poll found that 97.6% of the 1,100 sample believe that local, regional, and international conditions contributed to proposing the “Deal of the Century” in the first place. Furthermore, the poll found that 99.3% of the sample confirmed that continued Palestinian division encourages the U.S. administration to pass the deal. The poll results also indicated that the Bahrain Conference is an attempt to market the deal to Palestinians, with 98.9% support. These high results are logical when remembering that the poll is limited to Gaza residents.
Israeli Public Opinion
On the other hand, regarding Israeli public opinion, poll results prepared by the “Israeli Democracy Institute” showed that Israelis believe the deal will fail, with approximately three out of four Israelis holding this belief. They believe the anticipated U.S. plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will fail and that the chances of this peace plan succeeding are weak or even very weak, compared to less than 5% of respondents convinced that these chances are very good. This is despite the fact that most admit that President Trump’s efforts are in Israel’s interest.
Additionally, 77% of participants in the same poll expressed their conviction that Israeli interests are important to President Trump, while only 30% of Jewish respondents and 3.5% of Arab respondents believed he considers Palestinian interests.
It is clear that the “Deal of the Century” is rejected by Palestinians, who have numerous demands to ensure their survival and living in their land, demands that are no longer being listened to. The “Deal of the Century” jumped from verbal dialogues for over a year to a practical conference to offer billions of dollars here and there, resulting in widespread controversy and outright rejection by many Arab countries, such as Kuwait.
It is expected that after the Bahrain Conference ends and the threads and features of the deal become clear, some opinion polls will increase, which can transparently and clearly present the general mood as usual in implementing some opinion polls on the Arab-Israeli conflict, with proposals or settlement initiatives as happened with the Arab initiative and others. Unfortunately, it seems that the results will lean toward gradual acceptance of this deal with American pressure, the deteriorating Arab situation, and official media.
For the full Arabic article in Al-Mujtama Magazine, Issue 2133, July 2019, visit the following link:
https://mugtama.com/articles/item/88757-2019-07-03-14-59-16.html
