Dr. Samir Abu Rumman
There is no doubt that American public opinion polls have a long history, dating back to the 1930s, of accurately predicting the results of US presidential elections and determining the winner of the race for the White House, through hundreds of opinion polls conducted by various organizations.
During these decades of success, there have been some limited failures, such as in 1948, when almost all polls predicted Republican candidate Thomas Dewey would win over Democratic candidate Harry Truman. The polls of that period relied on traditional methods and samples that were not fully representative of the electorate, and then the result was a surprise victory for Truman. Another example is what happened in 2016, when most polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump, only for the latter to win.
Despite this, opinion polls have remained essential in understanding public opinion trends and predicting election results, and have witnessed significant developments in accuracy, sample representation, and the adoption of advanced analytical methods!
In this presidential election in particular, opinion polls have reached the stage of prediction. Given scientific standards, the size, value, accuracy, and nature of polls, we cannot know the winner! These figures are found in articles and writings that compile various results from opinion polling centers, such as the article “I think the pollsters will win this election,” written by Dr. Claire Durand, a professor of sociology at the University of Montreal and former president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). The article discussed the accuracy of opinion polls in the 2024 US presidential election. The author pointed out that the opinion polls do not show a clear winner due to the close results, with support ranging between 48% and 52% for both candidates. She believes that if the polls are wrong, it may be due to last-minute changes in voter sentiment, although she does not rule this out, noting that advances in data collection and analysis have improved the accuracy of the results.
Given this reality, pollsters must acknowledge that in some cases, a definitive conclusion cannot be reached. It is necessary to limit ourselves to mentioning the differences that do not reach the level of determining the gap, taking into account the known statistical margin of error, which may favor one candidate.
Therefore, polling predictions about the results of the 2024 US presidential election appear to be a very important test, requiring humility from people, researchers, and opinion analysts. We must acknowledge that we cannot answer the question that preoccupies the world today: Who will win this electoral battle, which has reached an unprecedented stage of intense competition? This is an opportunity to inform people in a practical and shocking way about significant sampling and non-sampling errors!
