Dr. Samir Abu Rumman
Although opinion polls are not limited to predicting the future, especially in the environment of American elections, the horse race for the White House is special, which again puts pollsters in front of a greater challenge than the last presidential elections. But there are reasons why Trump has a greater chance of winning, even with his hair; We list them here according to what we expect from the strength of their influence:
First: There is still a large percentage of those who are shy of Trump’s support, and they cannot be known by the opinion polling methodology alone. I referred to this in a previous article under the title “Trump Supporters!”, and these are what Trump described as “the silent majority.” Borrowing this term from President Nixon for those who do not declare to pollsters their voting intention.
Second: The majority of Americans tend to have the qualities of vitality, activity, adventure and challenge, and they find it more in Trump’s personality than in the boring Biden character, even if the latter is more rational and balanced. 16%.
Third: The Corona pandemic-imposed resorting to the option of early voting and by mail, which increased the ambiguity of the pollsters, especially with the high probability of invalidating this pattern, compared to personal voting at the polling station, and this is not in the interest of Democrats, and here voting by mail seems more dangerous than personal voting. Not because of fraud, but because of human error and partisan politics, it requires many steps and in different locations, which can confuse first-time voters, and cause them to make mistakes that will lead to their votes being invalidated, and in the 2020 primaries, more than 550 were disqualified A thousand mail ballots, which is especially dangerous in swing states, and according to polls, Democrats are three to four times more likely to vote by mail than Republicans.
Fourth: Democrats are more concerned about the Corona virus, which makes them more likely not to go to the vote, and according to an Axios-Ipsos poll, two-thirds of Democrats 64% see moderate or significant health risks to voting in person, compared to 29% of Republicans who say the same The same, more than one in three (37%) Democrats in the poll think there is a moderate risk, and more than one in five (21%) say there is a high risk of queuing up at polling stations to cast their ballots. Left-leaning independents, women, and minority communities may not vote in person if coronavirus infection rates continue to rise, or if there are obstacles to mailing, absentee voting or early voting, and in a study of tweets, Democratic voters outnumbered their Republican counterparts in requests for absentee ballots. By about 600,000 requests, and the Democrats’ fear of the Corona virus made them focus on virtual meetings, unlike the Republicans, which could be in the interest of Trump in terms of the strength of the presence and the personal Impressive entertaining.
Fifth: The strength of the US economy under Trump will be an important factor when voters head to the polls this month. US unemployment recently reached its lowest level in 50 years, continuing the steady downward trend that began in 2010, and median income has risen The real hourly rate of all private nonfarm employees increased 0.6% from January 2019 to January 2020, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and overall wages are rising, more jobs are being created and more people are returning to the workforce than ever before. According to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, when comparing the US economy to the global economy, the former appears to be a bright spot, despite the impact of the Corona pandemic on growth.
Sixth: Memories of Trump’s sudden victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections concern many voters, and this victory reminds them that the Electoral College, not the popular vote, determines the winner and loser, even though Clinton received three million more popular votes than Trump However, he managed to achieve slim victory margins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which was enough to obtain majorities in the Electoral College and then win the presidency, although fewer than 40,000 voters in those states (only 0.29% of all votes cast among these states) ) had changed their minds, Hillary Clinton would have won the presidency, and given that up to 13% of voters made up their mind on Election Day, a repeat of such a scenario is not so far fetched.
Seventh: Strong support from the Republican Party, with Trump enjoying broad support among Republicans in opinion polls — 90% of those who identify as Republicans said they would vote for Trump, and 71% view him very favorably, according to a June New York Times/Siena University poll. The past, which means that Democrats may not learn from some of their mistakes in not relying on Biden’s progress, as they depended on Clinton’s progress, which I referred to in a previous article in Al Jazeera Net, “Why did opinion polls make a mistake in America’s elections?”, which was one of the reasons Hillary lost She outperformed her in the polls to the extent that she, like most of the respondents, expected nothing but victory and did not think of preparing a concession speech, according to American tradition!!
Source: Al Jazeera Net