– The percentage of young migrants has doubled in some Arab countries.
– Gallup Poll: 24% of Middle East and North Africa residents prefer permanent migration.
– In Jordan, the percentage of those wanting to migrate has increased from a quarter in 2013 to half today.
– The primary reasons for migration are economic improvement and security instability.
– Europe is the main destination for North African migrants, while North American countries are preferred by migrants from Jordan and Lebanon.
– Between 12% and 43% of those wishing to migrate are willing to travel without official documents.
Although migration is an ancient phenomenon, as old as human existence, it has flourished in modern times due to the opportunities it offers migrants and the ease of travel between countries. This is especially true after the transportation revolution, which reduced distances and travel costs, facilitating people’s migration to other countries for various reasons related to education, economic prosperity, inequality, demography, violence, conflict, and environmental change.
In the Arab region, youth migration from Arab countries abroad has become a worrying concern for both governments and organizations in recent years. This is due to the increasing number of migrants, especially from specialized scientific cadres, leading to negative impacts such as depriving these countries of the expertise and qualifications of these competencies. This affects the development of the national economy and the structural composition of the population and workforce.
Moreover, illegal migration has flourished, raising security concerns in host countries, particularly in Europe. This has prompted authorities to impose specific restrictions aimed at rationalizing migration, relying solely on legal migration to meet European development requirements and labor market needs. This involves accepting migrants who are intellectuals and competent individuals, who are more knowledgeable and qualified in various work fields.
Despite the growing interest in this phenomenon, there is a lack of research and studies on it in Arab countries. This aims to highlight the high percentage of Arab youth who wish to migrate, which reflects the failure of development programs and policies adopted by Arab governments to integrate youth into the development process. It also indicates the political, economic, and social marginalization that Arab youth suffer.
Measuring Migration Through Public Opinion Polls:
To explore the general trends of Arab youth migration, in terms of desire, reasons, preferred destinations, and legality, public opinion polls will be used. These polls cover various age groups that can generally reflect the opinion of youth, noting that youth have a greater desire to migrate than other age groups. The results from three periodic survey projects will be presented:
- Arab Index Survey 2018: Conducted by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies through face-to-face interviews with 18,830 respondents from 11 Arab countries: Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.
- Arab Barometer Survey 2019: Conducted by the Arab Barometer Network in collaboration with the BBC, surveying 25,407 individuals face-to-face in 10 Arab countries: Libya, Morocco, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Yemen, in addition to the occupied Palestinian territories, with Kuwait’s data being collected later by the Gulf Opinions Center, which is still being published with other raw data from the surveyed countries.
- Gallup World Poll: Conducted by Gallup between 2015 and 2017 with face-to-face interviews with 453,122 adults in 152 countries, coinciding with the migration crisis that began in Europe in 2015.
- Desire to Migrate:
The Arab Barometer Survey showed that 20% of participants expressed a desire to migrate, with the percentage reaching 52% in the 18-29 age group. In contrast, the Arab Index Survey 2017 revealed that 26% of respondents intend to migrate. The Gallup World Poll 2015-2017 indicated that 24% of Middle East and North Africa residents prefer to permanently move to another country if given the chance, an increase from 22% in the 2013-2016 survey.
Although the percentages are similar, they remain high, especially among youth. The high percentage in the Arab Index may be due to the broader phrasing of the question, which combined desire and intention, two different things. One might desire but not intend!
Regionally, the Arab Barometer results showed that in six of the surveyed countries, more people are considering migration than in 2013. Jordan saw the largest increase, with those wanting to migrate rising from a quarter in 2013 to nearly half today. In Sudan, the percentage decreased but still represents half the population, with over 40% in both Jordan and Morocco. Lebanon and Yemen saw the most significant decline in those wanting to migrate.
In the Arab Index, a little over half of Sudanese respondents expressed a desire to migrate, while the percentage was a third or more in Morocco, Jordan, and Iraq, ranging between a quarter and a fifth in Tunisia, Palestine, and Mauritania. The lowest percentages were in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with 8% of Kuwaitis and 5% of Saudis expressing a desire to migrate.
The Gallup survey showed that half of Syrian youth wish to migrate!
- Reasons for Migration:
The Arab Index Survey revealed that the main reason for migration is economic improvement (47%), followed by security instability (10%). 9% of respondents cited political reasons for migration. This aligns with the Arab Barometer Survey, which highlighted economic conditions and corruption as the main reasons for migration. The Gallup survey did not address migration reasons.
Country-wise, economic improvement appears as the dominant factor, except in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, where security and political stability remain concerns. Half of the Iraqis wanting to migrate cited economic improvement as their motive, while 30% attributed it to security instability and 11% to political reasons. Over a quarter of Palestinians, 14% of Lebanese, 10% of Saudis, and 9% of Egyptians wishing to migrate attributed their desire to security instability. Meanwhile, 38% of Saudis, 10% of Moroccans, 9% of Tunisians, and 5% of Palestinians cited political reasons for migration.
- Preferred Migration Destinations:
The Arab Index Survey showed that 1% of respondents did not specify their destination. The majority wished to migrate to European countries (38%), with the Gulf states being the second preferred destination (16%). The largest percentage specified the United States as a migration destination (9%), followed by Canada (8%) and Australia (2%).
These results align with the Arab Barometer Survey, where Europe remains the preferred destination for those wishing to migrate (42%), although slightly less than the 2016 survey (51%). Conversely, the percentage of those considering migration to North America rose from 23% to 27%, while the percentage wanting to migrate to Gulf countries slightly decreased to 20%. The percentage wanting to migrate to other regional countries (besides the Gulf) more than doubled to 11%. Europe is the primary destination for North African migrants, consistent with Gallup’s results on North African migrants’ preferred destinations. The Gulf countries are the top choice for migrants from Egypt, Yemen, and Sudan, while North America is preferred by migrants from Jordan and Lebanon.
- Migration Without Official Documents (Illegal Migration):
According to the Arab Barometer, those wishing to migrate expressed willingness to travel without official documents. In Sudan, for example, 43% were willing, similar percentages in Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen, Iraq, and Morocco, while it was 12% in Lebanon and 18% in Jordan.
Recommendations:
Given the high percentage of youth wanting to migrate, several recommendations can be proposed to mitigate this phenomenon and its negative impacts, such as:
- Initiating political reforms that allow freedom of expression and media, ensuring youth can express their opinions on national issues, particularly those related to youth.
- Establishing the rule of law, justice, equal opportunities, and combating corruption and nepotism.
- Economic reforms that link education outcomes to labor market needs, reducing unemployment, and providing financial support to youth in all sectors to establish their projects and adopt their productive ideas.
- Offering youth appropriate benefits for their educational qualifications, such as suitable salaries, work commitments, housing, and health insurance, to encourage them to stay in their countries for better opportunities.
- Establishing major Arab projects to utilize the surplus of competencies and labor, benefiting the Arab community.
Dr. Samir Abu Rumman
General Supervisor of the World of Opinions Center for Public Opinion Polls in Jordan and the Gulf Opinions Center in Kuwait
